It’s the business end of the season and Newcastle United are again in a battle - for the third season in a row - to decide their European fate.
Two years ago it was a Champions League battle, with a return to the competition for the first time in two decades on the line. As we all know it had a happy ending. Last season was the opposite. After some top flight struggles the Magpies looked like they’d managed to squeeze into the UEFA Conference League for this season, only for Manchester United to claim a Europa League spot, despite finishing outside the top seven, thanks to their FA Cup triumph. The Magpies ended empty-handed, but every cloud, given the freedom to compete - and win - the Carabao Cup this campaign.
This season, Newcastle already have a Euro spot in the bag, but it’s just a case of which competition they’ll grace? Will it be a top five Champions League spot and the untold riches and transformation the competition would undoubtedly bring? Will it be another dalliance with the Europa League, not tackled since the days of Alan Pardew & Co? Or will it be the Conference League this time? Although very winnable, that’s the wooden spoon few, particularly the bean counters, want at St James’ Park next season.
At the close of play on Sunday, the Magpies are fourth in the Premier League table, but could drop down by the next time they play - next Sunday at home to rivals Chelsea. So we asked Grok, X’s AI tool, where each of the 20 Premier League teams would finish this season, with just three games left to play. And here’s where it thinks the Magpies will end their campaign.
(This table was done prior to Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest)
1. Sunderland - 20th
Their return to the Premier League is likely to be brief. Promoted teams have historically struggled (e.g., Southampton’s 2024/25 relegation), and Sunderland’s squad may lack the quality to survive. | Getty Images
2. Burnley - 19th
Burnley’s promotion brings them back, but their 2023/24 relegation exposed defensive frailties. Simulations predict all promoted sides will struggle, and Burnley’s lack of top-tier depth could see them drop. | Getty Images
3. Leeds United - 18th
Leeds return to the Premier League for 2025/26, but data suggests promoted sides struggle, with all three projected to go down. Their attacking style may not translate against stronger opposition, leading to relegation. | Getty Images
4. Brentford - 17th
Brentford’s established status under Thomas Frank is a strength, but their reliance on key players like Bryan Mbeumo (if he stays) and a potential Frank departure to a bigger club could destabilize them. A 17th-place finish reflects caution. | Getty Images