It was never going to be easy, was it? Newcastle United’s defeat to Arsenal on Sunday afternoon has certainly got plenty looking over their shoulders in the race for Champions League qualification.
When the full-time whistle blew at St James’ Park against Southampton last weekend, a return to Europe’s elite had never felt closer after a 3-1 win put Eddie Howe’s side nine points clear of fifth place Liverpool.
But following back-to-back wins over Tottenham Hotspur and Brentford, Jurgen Klopp’s men have cut the gap on Newcastle to three points, and one point on Manchester United.
Indeed, nerves are building on Tyneside, with the pressure on Howe’s side to beat Leeds United next Saturday in what is Sam Allardyce’s first game in charge at Elland Road.
How is the battle for the top four predicted to play out?
Data experts at FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers to give every team’s probability of winning the league, qualifying for Europe or being relegated.
With an explanation of how the model works HERE, here’s where data experts are tipping every team to finish and how many points they will get in the Premier League between now and the end of the season.
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1. NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE, ENGLAND - MAY 07: Eddie Howe, Manager of Newcastle United, reacts during the Premier League match between Newcastle United and Arsenal FC at St. James Park on May 07, 2023 in Newcastle upon Tyne, England. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
2. Southampton (20th) - 28 points
Current position: 20th | Current points total: 24
3. Everton (19th) - 33 points
Current position: 19th | Current points total: 29
4. Leeds United (18th) - 33 points
Current position: 17th | Current points total: 30