How many points Newcastle United, Man United & Liverpool need to seal Champions League finish
Newcastle United’s Champions League dream is on the verge of becoming a reality.
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After suffering a 3-0 defeat at Aston Villa a fortnight ago, the Magpies have responded emphatically by scoring 10 goals in two games, and conceding just twice.
Eddie Howe’s side blew Spurs away inside the opening 20 minutes on Sunday after taking a 5-0 lead. The final scoreline ended 6-1.
And last night, United did similar to Everton. Leading 1-0 after Callum Wilson’s 28th-minute opener, Newcastle scored three goals in the remaining quarter of an hour.
Claiming 62 points from 32 games so far - a points per-game-total of 1.9 - current projection has Newcastle to finish the 2022-23 campaign on 73 points.
And as history tells us a return to Europe’s elite following a 19-year absence is looking ever likelier.
How many points do Newcastle need for Champions League qualification?
The average points required for a top-four finish over the last decade is 71 points, a total that has guaranteed that for the last four campaigns.
In 2021-22 and 2018-19, Tottenham Hotspur finished fourth with 71 points. In 2020-21, Chelsea finished there with 67 points. A year earlier, they achieved the same finish but with a point less.
Chelsea and Manchester City’s 66 points in 2019-20 and 2015-16, respectively, has been the lowest tally required for fourth in the last 10 years, while Arsenal’s 79 points in 2013-14 is the highest.
Newcastle’s projected 73 points has sealed Champions League qualification in seven of the last 10 Premier League season, excluding 2017-18 (Liverpool 75 points), 2016-17 (Liverpool 76 points) and Arsenal in 13-14.
Assessing the current table now, chasing-pack Tottenham and Aston Villa can only reach a maximum points total of 69. Liverpool is 71, while Brighton is 73, although they have to face United at St James’ Park on Thursday, May 18.
If not the Champions League, what about the Europa League?
Should United fall short in their top-four challenge, they must finish at least sixth to seal a spot in the Europa League - and recent history tells us United are just two points away.
The average points total required over the last decade is 64, meaning United would need just two points from their remaining six games to match that tally.
That said, Manchester United finished sixth with 58 points last season, and Tottenham Hotspur did in 2019-29. Indeed, 64 points has been enough to secure sixth position in six of the last 10 campaigns.
The only exceptions are West Ham in 20-21 (65 points), Man United in 18-19 and 16-17 (66 & 69 points) and Tottenham in 13-14 (69 points).
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