Opta delivers verdict on Newcastle United’s Champions League chances after Liverpool loss

It was another loss, but it’s fair to say it wasn’t unexpected.

Newcastle United failed to end their remarkably poor run of form at Anfield as they were yet again beaten by Liverpool, and again it was at a canter.

A first half strike from Dominik Szoboszlai then a second from Alexis Mac Allister ensured the dress rehearsal for the Carabao Cup final in three weeks ended with the hosts claiming all three points.

It is a result that does more, in many ways, for Liverpool’s hopes of claiming only a second Premier League title, taking them an unassailable-looking 14 points clear at the top of the table, than denting Newcastle’s chances of a Champions League return.

But what does Opta think about it?

Does it believe the Magpies can get back into European competition after dipping out this season? Or does it think it might again prove a step too far for Eddie Howe’s men?

Here’s it’s analysis of the top 10 teams in the Premier League at present - and what chances it gives each of them of making the Champions League for next season. It must be noted that, as things stand, five teams, up from the usual four, are likely to qualify direct through the Premier League. As a caveat, that could be six, obviously, if an English team finishes outside the Euro spots and wins the Europa League, for example Tottenham Hotspur or Manchester United.

1. Liverpool - 100%

Opta gives Liverpool more than a 98% chance of winning the title, so it’s no surprise it has them ranked as 100% certain to get into the UCL for next season.

As a result, it also sees them as having a 0% chance of making any other competition.

2. Arsenal - 99.71%

They might have had their struggles this season, but not enough to dent any chances of making Europe’s premier cup competition it seems, according to Opta.

Mikel Arteta’s side might well only have a 1.33% chance of winning the Premier League title right now, but they are ranked as 99.71% to get in the UCL.

3. Man City - 84.25%

They’re usually bankers, and they’re close to it this season, despite their massive drop off. It’s safe to say Opta thinks Pep Guardiola & Co will again grace the Champions League, giving them an 84.25% chance of getting back in.

It’s 0% for the title, an unusual one for Pep’s men at this time of the campaign, with a likelihood of 8.52% they’re in the Europa League.

4. Nottingham Forest - 39.08%

They’re been right up there all season, and a draw v Arsenal has done their hopes no harm, but Opta doesn’t give Forest a more than 40% chance of making it back to a competition they’ve not graced since the 1979 and 1980.

The likelihood of a Europa League slot, which would be claimed by finishing sixth, most likely, is said to be a 21.96% chance.

5. Chelsea - 33.19%

Opta thinks it’s a 33.19% shot that Enzo Maresca leads Chelsea back to the promised land - a competition they won under current England boss Thomas Tuchel.

Their form has been patchy, but few in the race can deny their own has been any better, in fairness.

As things stand Opta thinks it might be more likely that UCL is coming to Stamford Bridge - which will boost the coffers - than Europa League, 21.27% likelihood.

6. Newcastle United - 25. 55%

It’s about a one in four chance the Magpies will claim one of those top five slots, according to Opta, although the data analysts think it’s still slightly more likely than a slot in the secondary Europa as things stand at the moment.

Opta gives Eddie Howe’s men a 20.88% chance of making that one.

7. AFC Bournemouth - 10.42%

Things are starting to get less likely than likely as we make our way down the Premier League top 10 - and while AFC Bournemouth have been an absolute revelation this campaign, a Champions League slot is likely beyond them in Opta’s eyes.

They have a 13.19% chance of making the Europa League using current form.

8. Brighton & Hove Albion - 5.08%

While Brighton have a 5% chance of Champions League, Opta thinks they have a 7%(ish) chance to make it into the Europa.

9. Aston Villa - 1.59%

This season’s likely Champions League quarter finalists won’t make it back in next year? It’s no surprise, really, given the extra pressures the competition brings on a Premier League team. And Newcastle know a thing or two about all of that.

As a result, Opta thinks it’s less than 3% Villa get any Euro comp next season, and less than 2% it’s the UCL again.

10. Fulham - 0.88%

The rank outsiders in the whole race, according to Opta, are Fulham. In fairness, the analysts don’t give them much of a chance at all.

They even think it’s a less than 3% chance they make any European competition at all.