Supercomputer assesses Newcastle United’s Champions League hopes with predicted results from stats experts

A monumental quartet of fixtues lie in wait for Newcastle United over the next fortnight as Eddie Howe’s side look to end the club’s 20-year absence from the Champions League.

There can be no doubt the season has already been an overwhelming success for the Magpies, who have already surpassed their reported pre-season expectations of a push for a top ten and a good run in one of the cups. European football is already secured and although their run to the final of the Carabao Cup ended in disappointment with a Wembley defeat against Manchester United, Howe’s men have shown they can mix it with the best on offer in the top tier of English football.

But the next four games could well dictate just how quickly the Magpies hierachy can accelerate their ambitious on and off-field plans for the club as they look to qualify for a place among European football’s elite for the first time since Sir Bobby Robson was in the home dugout at St James Park and the likes of Alan Shearer, Craig Bellamy and Gary Speed were wearing the famous black and white stripes.

NewcastleWorld utilised the services of stats boffins FiveThirtyEight to predict the outcome in each game and assess what impact it could have on United’s Champions League aspirations.

Leeds United v Newcastle United

The Magpies will come face-to-face with former manager Sam Allardyce on Saturday lunchtime after he was named as Leeds boss on a deal lasting until the end of the current season. ‘Big Sam’ got his Whites reign underway with a 2-1 defeat at title favourites Manchester City last weekend and would love nothing more than to claim his first win and boost his side’s survival hopes by taking three points from United at Elland Road.

The two sides are sat at either end of the Premier League table and was already a crucial fixture for both clubs even before the Allardyce factor was thrown into the mix. Yet the supercomputer seems fairly sure which way the points will be heading come full-time.

Predicted outcome: Leeds United win - 23%, Draw - 21%, Newcastle United win - 56%

Newcastle United v Brighton and Hove Albion

United’s penultimate home fixture of a remarkable season comes on Thursday night when Brighton make the long trip to Tyneside looking to enhance their chances of competing in European football for the first time in their history. As it stands ahead of this weekend’s fixtures, the Seagulls are sat in seventh place in the table, just two points behind Tottenham Hotspur but with the benefit of a two games in hand on the North London outfit.

The Magpies showed all of their battling qualities to earn a point in the first meeting of the two sides earlier this season - but the supercomputer believes a more beneficial outcome will fall the way of Eddie Howe’s men at St James Park.

Predicted outcome: Newcastle United win - 48%, Draw - 23%, Brighton and Hove Albion win - 30%

Newcastle United v Leicester City

Who would have predicted Leicester City would be travelling to St James Park needing a win to preserve their Premier League status? The Foxes have long been viewed as a model for other clubs to follow after securing the Premier League title and the FA Cup over the last decade - but this season has been something of a nightmare as they form part of a dramatic battle to remain in the top tier.

The first meeting of the two sides summed up their seasons, with Newcastle putting on a clinical display against their lacklustre hosts on Boxing Day - and the supercomputer unsurprisingly suggests a similar outcome on what will be St James Park’s final first-team fixture of a wonderful season.

Predicted outcome: Newcastle United win - 65%, Draw - 19%, Leicester City - 16%

Chelsea v Newcastle United

If Leicester’s struggles were a surprise, it’s hard to know how to describe what has gone on at Stamford Bridge this season! Managerial changes, an almost unprecedented spend in the transfer market and early exits from cup competitions at home and in Europe.

It is not beyond the realms of possibility to suggest Newcastle may well head to Stamford Bridge to take on a Blues side sat in the lower half of the Premier League table, despite the obvious quality in the squad that is likely to be under the control of Chelsea legend Frank Lampard for the last time - and perhaps that is reflected in the supercomputer’s predicted outcome of the game.

Predicted outcome: Chelsea win - 36%, Draw - 26%, Newcastle United win - 38%