The xG nerds are terrified by Newcastle United’s ‘relegation’ form - here’s why

To those of a certain vintage, xG means little. They would insist that the statistic is nothing but an arbitrary figure plucked from the air to convolute the beautiful game.

To an extent, it is hard not to disagree. A bygone era focused on a superb pass, fantastic one-touch play or a wide player beating his man with skill.

The modern era has seen the sport become overanalysed, with players coached to every fibre of their being. Pep Guardiola, for all his greatness, is the embodiment of that, with one man’s perfection viewed as robotic by others.

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Even the likes of Sky Sports have begun accompanying xG, or “expected goals”, alongside more rigid stats like shots on target, possession and corners. In layman’s terms, the data aims to accurately pinpoint the likelihood of scoring from a chance

For example, a two-yard tap-in would generate a higher xG score than an outside-the-box screamer. Those who believe Newcastle have ridden their luck this season might want to take note.

Despite sitting fifth in the Premier League, the Magpies have failed to set the world alight. A troubling transfer window has popped the balloon of enthusiasm that has engulfed Tyneside since the Saudi-backed takeover.

It has been a case of “job done” ahead of the September international break, with three wins and a draw. The penalty shoot-out win over Nottingham Forest also ensured qualification for the Carabao Cup third round. 

Data from FootyStats shows Newcastle sitting 19th in the xG table - with only Ipswich Town ranking lower. Even Southampton and Everton, the sides rooted pointless to the bottom of the league, sit 10th and 13th.

Newcastle fans’ eyes have not deceived them in 2024-25 - is this sustainable? What the figures do not account for is areas like quality, with the Magpies boasting serious talents like Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon and Bruno Guimaraes who can create something out of nothing.

Click here to view the xG table in full - but there are no prizes for guessing who sits at the top. It is also understandable if any readers were to continue taking this stat with a pinch of salt…